WHILE the plodding "earth Ox" in the Chinese horoscope is unhurriedly making its exit out of the 2009, the crouching "wood Tiger" is ready to spring us more surprises in the year 2010.

Be prepared for the vital breath of the "White Metal Tiger" on 14 February next month.

Infamous as the "white tiger" in Chinese history and particularly among "feng shui" masters and Taoists on its symbolic significance, many of us are wondering whether its ferocious nature will send prices of consumable and food products spiralling upwards this year?

Not forgetting the lingering effects of the perfect economic storm driven by the past high oil prices and crop piles are still with us and has inflicted inflationary food prices upon the world's hungry population?

And despite the fact that we are at the tail end of the earth Ox year of 2009, many world economies are still walking the path of global economic crisis with many governments desperately preserving economic strength and feverishly promoting economic and social stability. 

But what will be the scenario at our home-front?

Malaysians are already suffering from bouts of inflationary pressures and the shrinking "Malaysian Ringgit".

How much food, consumer goods or services can RM100 buy you?

How about the poorer family man with RM50?

How much and what type of food can he buy?

As prices of imported consumer and local food products are escalating beyond the means of the poor and middle-income family households, the words of former American president Ronald Reagan rings true.

Inflation is a mugger

"Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit-man," Reagan said tongue-in-cheek.

Malaysians are also worrying whether the year of the tiger will witness a gradual withdrawal of the wide ranging system of subsidies on basic food products?

If this is a likely scenario, how much worse will it affect the majority of Malaysian households whose budgets are already stretched by rocketing food prices?

Will our "tortoise-paced" economic recovery process negatively impact the 95 % of family households in the country?

Unfortunately, there are no perfect or ready answers. We just have to sit tight, fasten our wallet-belts and wait, hoping the scenario will not turn out to be the worst food inflation in 17 years.

But one thing is certain.

There are already telling signs that the days of subsidies by the government maybe coming to an end, and the process is likely to be gradual depending on the improvement of the local economic scenario and the global situation.

At the macro-level, last year's rapid increases in the cost of agricultural commodities along with the sharp recession had increased the cost of subsidies as well as the volume of people consuming cheaper subsidised products.

The "subsidies" approach is becoming burdensom to government as it also distorts the market.

Besides this, it was therefore not surprising that at the end of last year, the government finally ended subsidising the low grade 15 % broken rice (known grade as ST15) and lately, allowing the price of sugar to be set by market forces.

Pinch becoming painful

At the micro level, at the ground, there is a different and more realistic perception of the ordinary Malaysian as the the pinch gets more painful.

Let us focus only on the "ordinary" costs of a "humble" breakfast.

Gone are the days of the 1997 prices whereby an ordinary loaf of bread costs RM0.76 sen, a piece of roti canai RM0.52 sen or a packet of instant noodle RM0.42 sen.

Currently, the prices of the same items have doubled or trebled.

Or an ordinary bowl of "mee or noodle" costs between RM4.00 to RM5.00 or a plate of "char-kwei-teow" (fried noodle) now reduces your wallet by RM3.50 to RM4.50.

Five years ago, a RM5 note was sufficient to buy you a simple breakfast including the morning beverage.

Not to mention prices of essential goods and services such as general foodstuff, house rental, transport, car-parking and toll charges, telephone and electricity tariffs have all gone up.

Middle-income Malaysian householders with bigger families will be lucky to have any lifestyle at all that might include golfing, an overseas vacation or the number of times they eat out.

Even maintaining a comfortable quality of living under such inflationary pressures can be a difficult task of making tough choices in spending.

Worse, those little savings like the unemployed, pensioners and others with a take-home pay at the lowest end of the scale are best described as "survivors" on their livelihood.

Many are forced to take on a second job or part-time chores to supplement their meagre household incomes so that they can make ends meet.

Upward price spiral, downward lifestyle

In the Klang Valley and other major cities, urban dwellers have to pay higher food prices as most vegetables, fruits, sea-food, chicken and meat prices continue to spiral upwards.

Will 2010 be another dark cloud that hovers before it breaks into another thunderstorm of rising prices for more food items?

Last week, the government had announced that sugar is going to cost 20 sen more per kg.

There had been alleged cases of unscrupulous shopkeepers carrying out irregular supply of sugar in some places, while some housewives also complained of difficulty in purchasing cooking oil.

Costs of school fees have gone up with three sets of fees for primary and secondary schools and other costs for school activities.

That does not include bus fares which had already gone up.

While it is true that inflation in Malaysia has generally been very low historically, and the nation has not experienced major runaway inflation like in some Latin American countries, the creeping Consumer Price Index CPI) has been on an upward trend.

In fact, the CPI has been increasing on average by 3.6 % per year in the 198s and 3.7 % % in the 1990s, but not any more.

Inflation has been creeping in since 1992.

It has peaked at 4.7 % in 1992 following higher oil prices in the 1990s due to the Gulf War.

In 2005, a national survey showed 60 % of the working population with a RM1,500 take-home pay were unable to handle rising prices and another 52 % of those earning between RM1,500 and RM3,000 had difficulty in maintaining their standard of living.

Ominous signs

In 2005, even the "humble" vegetable called the "taugeh" (bean sprout) had its price raised from 70 sen to 80 sen, a "bad omen that the inflationary signs were there to stay.

The ordinary man in the street is generally uninterested in the justification of price increases or causes of inflation, but he knows pretty well that his wallet is fast "running dry" of cash.

For example, how do you explain or justify a glass of sugar-cane juice along Jalan Peel charging his customers RM1.80 sen a glass (filled with ice cubes) when only a year ago, costs RM0.80 sen?

Or try pacifying a Malaysian who is suffering from "financial constipation" after paying RM1.60 for two half-boiled eggs, two slices of plain bread (with no butter or anything else) for RM1.20 sen and a RM1.30 cuppa of bitter black local coffee (with no sugar).

Having that same breakfast items two years ago in the same coffee shop could have cost him half that much.

However, you are blessed if you are not "a packet-a-day" smoker, otherwise, add on RM9.30 a 20-stick packet for that breakfast and you could end up more than RM10 per breakfast every morning for the next 365 days.

Many agree the battle line against inflation can be tough especially when enforcement against unethical profiteering is weak and inconsistent.

What goes up, stays up

Unscrupulous traders who diligently complied to requirements of displaying food prices, can still manipulate them at the slightest excuse (i.e. vegetables, chicken, sea-food and fruits) on unrelated price factors.

They always find imaginative ways to profit unethically.

But consumers must be taught and made aware that they have the trump card.

They can and must boycott such unscrupulous traders and their products regardless whether they are small or big operators.

It is wise for us to remember that the law of inflation means that whatever goes up will go up some more.

When the price of sugar went down in the past, the price for the cup of tea or coffee did not go down.

It makes sense, and you bet with the price of sugar up, the price will "go up some more".